- Trump pledges to end the Ukraine war, suggesting a peace deal within six months.
- Russia’s President Putin demands recognition of territorial gains and NATO withdrawal.
- Ukraine seeks Western security guarantees and peacekeepers on its soil.
- Both nations intensify battlefield efforts to strengthen negotiation positions.
- Analysts doubt the feasibility of peace, warning of prolonged conflict.
President-elect Donald Trump has vowed to end the three-year-long war in Ukraine, promising a peace deal within six months of taking office. However, tensions between Moscow and Kyiv remain high as both nations push for battlefield advantages, leaving little room for immediate compromise.
Russia has increased its offensives in eastern and southern Ukraine, seeking complete control of annexed regions, while Ukraine has responded with targeted strikes on Russian infrastructure and an incursion into the Kursk region. Both sides aim to bolster their positions ahead of potential negotiations.
Russia’s Demands: Annexation and NATO Withdrawal
Russian President Vladimir Putin has expressed willingness to negotiate but insists any peace deal must respect the “realities on the ground.” This includes the recognition of Russia’s territorial gains in Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, which were annexed in 2022.
Additionally, Moscow demands Ukraine’s full withdrawal from these regions, renunciation of its NATO aspirations, and the lifting of Western sanctions. These sanctions, especially recent ones targeting Russia’s energy sector, have strained its economy despite a reported 4% growth last year.
Ukraine’s Stance: Security and Sovereignty
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy initially demanded a full Russian withdrawal from all occupied territories but has softened his position over time. However, Zelenskyy continues to push for strong security guarantees from Western allies and rejects any temporary ceasefire that would allow Russia to regroup militarily.
Zelenskyy also advocates for deploying Western peacekeepers in Ukraine to ensure long-term stability. Despite international support, Kyiv faces reluctance from some allies regarding NATO membership, a key demand for the nation’s security.
Escalating Battlefield Tensions
Russia controls about 20% of Ukrainian territory, including Crimea, annexed illegally in 2014. Over the past year, Russian forces have advanced steadily, using tactics of small-scale offensives to wear down Ukraine’s defenses.
Meanwhile, Ukraine has faced severe manpower shortages, with declining mobilization rates and rising desertion among troops. In an effort to shift momentum, Kyiv launched an incursion into Russia’s Kursk region in August. While initially surprising Moscow, the incursion led to intensified Russian counterattacks.
Reports suggest North Korea has sent 10,000–12,000 troops to support Russia in the region, complicating Ukraine’s efforts.
Trump’s Peace Proposal and Challenges
During his campaign, Trump promised to settle the conflict within 24 hours, later adjusting the timeline to six months. Keith Kellogg, Trump’s nominee for Ukraine envoy, expressed confidence in brokering a deal within 100 days.
Kellogg dismissed concerns that Trump might reduce U.S. support for Kyiv, emphasizing that the goal is to save Ukraine’s sovereignty. Analysts predict Trump will pressure Putin to end hostilities by threatening increased sanctions and military aid to Ukraine.
However, experts warn that Putin is unlikely to compromise on his territorial ambitions. Political analysts suggest that any concession by Kyiv, especially regarding NATO, could embolden Moscow to escalate its demands further.
Economic Strains and Sanctions
Western sanctions have targeted Russia’s oil and gas sectors, dealing a blow to its economy. President Joe Biden’s recent measures aim to disrupt Moscow’s “shadow fleet” used to bypass earlier restrictions.
Despite these challenges, Russia has maintained economic output through massive military spending. However, a weakening ruble and labor shortages have fueled inflation, putting additional pressure on the Kremlin.
Peace Deal Prospects Remain Uncertain Amidst Growing Tensions
Observers remain skeptical about the possibility of a peace deal. Putin insists on the recognition of annexed territories, while Ukraine demands sovereignty and security guarantees. These conflicting demands have created a significant impasse between the two sides.
Analysts warn that a failure in negotiations could lead to further escalation. Some fear that if military support for Ukraine increases, especially under Trump’s administration, it could trigger a direct confrontation between Russia and the U.S.
“There’s a belief in the West that Putin will back down under pressure,” said Sergei Poletaev, a Moscow-based analyst. “But Putin is more likely to escalate further,” he added, emphasizing the risks of a prolonged conflict.
Trump’s pledge to broker peace in Ukraine has captured international attention. However, the reality on the ground remains grim, as both nations focus on military gains rather than compromising, leaving little hope for diplomacy.
The coming months will determine whether Trump’s plan can succeed. For now, both sides remain deeply entrenched in their positions, and the risk of prolonged conflict hangs heavily over the region.